Download Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS (Wiley Series in by Ioannis Ntzoufras PDF

By Ioannis Ntzoufras

A hands-on creation to the rules of Bayesian modeling utilizing WinBUGS

Bayesian Modeling utilizing WinBUGS presents an simply obtainable creation to using WinBUGS programming recommendations in a number of Bayesian modeling settings. the writer offers an obtainable therapy of the subject, delivering readers a tender creation to the rules of Bayesian modeling with precise tips at the sensible implementation of key principles.

The booklet starts off with a uncomplicated advent to Bayesian inference and the WinBUGS software program and is going directly to hide key themes, including:

  • Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms in Bayesian inference

  • Generalized linear models

  • Bayesian hierarchical models

  • Predictive distribution and version checking

  • Bayesian version and variable evaluation

Computational notes and display captures illustrate using either WinBUGS in addition to R software program to use the mentioned strategies. routines on the finish of every bankruptcy let readers to check their figuring out of the provided techniques and all information units and code can be found at the book's similar net site.

Requiring just a operating wisdom of likelihood idea and facts, Bayesian Modeling utilizing WinBUGS serves as an exceptional publication for classes on Bayesian statistics on the upper-undergraduate and graduate degrees. it's also a precious reference for researchers and practitioners within the fields of facts, actuarial technological know-how, drugs, and the social sciences who use WinBUGS of their daily work.

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Extra info for Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS (Wiley Series in Computational Statistics)

Example text

Ii) Perform sensitivity analysis for various values of a and b. Produce related plots depicting changes on the posterior mean and variance. 3 In the exponential distribution, consider directly the mean parameter p = l/B. a) What is the conjugate prior for p? b) What is the posterior distribution for p and B under this setup? 2? 4 For yi N gamma(v, 0) assuming that v is known a) Prove that the gamma distribution is a conjugate prior for 8. b) Find the posterior mean and variance for 0. 5 Let us consider Yi (for i = 1,.

1. -) represents sample distribution o f y ; solid line (-) indicates posterior of p; dashed line (- - -) denotes prior of p. 27 PROBLEMS simplify the prior structure using independent distributions for p and r (or equivalently o 2, and directly specify the prior precision of p instead of setting it proportional to g For example, we may consider '. f ( p . a 2 ) = f ( p ) f ( c r 2 )with f(p) = N ( p ~ : o ;and ) f ( g 2 )= IG(a: h ) . In this case, the resulting posterior distribution is of an unknown form.

8. 5% quantilies of the distribution. 8 to zero. 24929. 1 or a = b = 1. 10 we see how the prior becomes increasingly informative for low values of c which controls the marginal prior variance. 1, the posterior is very close to the data (expressed in terms of the distribution of the sample mean G). 6 NONCONJUGATE ANALYSIS In the example of the body temperature data we have expressed the amount of information as a proportion of the unknown variance of Y . In many occasions we are interested in expressing our prior beliefs in a simpler and more straightforward manner.

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